Pakistan is Heading For a New Bloc and Ditching OIC along with Saudi Arabia

 Pakistan is Heading For a New Bloc and Ditching OIC along with Saudi Arabia

The future of Saudi Arabian-Pakistani relations

In Pakistan, where Mohammed bin Salman, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia and the de facto ruler of the country will spend two days of his four-day visit to Asian countries, which started today, is flamboyant anticipation in Pakistan, with a protocol that has not been applied to any foreign country so far in Islamabad. it was broadly reflected in the media that it would be received well The fact that the crown prince of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) also paid a visit Islamabad a few days ago and the mutual agreements were signed raises the question of "Is Pakistan shifting to the UAE-Saudi Arabia axis"?

The timing of the visits of both crown princes makes them watch even more carefully by the international community. Two bomb attacks in the region in the last week make the timing of these visits meaningful. The first of these attacks took place in the Kashmir region against the Indian army and the other in the Baluchistan state against the Iranian army. While the attack on the Indian army increases the tensions that already exist in Pakistan-India relations, attacks on the Iranian army are the first signs of new tension between Iran and Pakistan. In addition to all this, the fact that it was held right after the anti-Iran conference held in Warsaw last week adds a special value to the visit.

Saudi Arabian-Pakistani relations from past to present

Although the history of relations between the two countries is old, after Zia ul-Hak came to power in Pakistan in 1975, Riyadh paid special attention to developing closer ties with Islamabad. The rapprochement during this period was based on the common threat perception against the Iranian revolution and the Marxist regime in Afghanistan. During this period, Saudi Arabia had paid for the US weapons purchased by Pakistan and partially transferred these weapons to the armed opposition in Afghanistan.

When the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia and the USA formed an army of local fighters to fight the Soviets. Trained with the support of Pakistani intelligence and equipped with US weapons paid for by Saudi Arabia, this army managed to resist the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan for many years. In this process, Saudi Arabia not only had financial aid but also encouraged the volunteers in the country to flow to conflict zones through Pakistan. During this period, the military cooperation between Riyadh and Islamabad increased, and news started to appear in the press that Pakistani pilots were on duty in the Saudi air force.

The most important evidence showing the level of Saudi Arabian-Pakistani relations is that Riyadh's second embassy building is located in Pakistan and the Saudi an embassy is the largest in Islamabad. Another indicator of the close relations between the two countries is that Saudi Arabia provided free oil while the international community imposed sanctions on Pakistan when it conducted nuclear tests in 1998.

The regional status quo, shaken by the Arab Spring process, and Saudi Arabia's an increasing need for security made Pakistan a critical actor for the security of the Middle East. During his visit to Pakistan in 2016, shortly after King Salman ascended the throne, several agreements were signed to improve military cooperation between the two countries. The fact that two million Pakistanis work in Saudi Arabia and that the largest foreign exchange inflow to Pakistan originates from Saudi Arabia is one of the most important reasons that bring the two countries closer economically.

Reasons for Saudi Arabian-Pakistani rapprochement

The most important reason that brings Pakistan closer to Saudi Arabia is the economic problems experienced by the country. Pakistan, which has received aid from the IMF 12 times since 1980, is in need of a significant amount of foreign resources in order to overcome the economic bottleneck it is in. The employment of the pressure exerted on the economy by the rapidly growing population and the growing threat from Afghanistan, in addition to Pakistan-India tension, forced the country to divert its most productive resources to the defense sector. Especially the recent deterioration of the relations with the USA and the suspension of the economic aid of the USA affected the country's economy very negatively; The central bank's reserves, which had declined to $ 8 billion, increased the urgency of external funding. Also, last week's bomb attacks in Kashmir and Balochistan have increased tension in Pakistan's relations with its powerful neighbors, both east and west. For Pakistan, getting closer to the UAE-Saudi Arabia axis, in addition to its enormous economic contribution, may provide the country with the opportunity to overcome its loneliness in the region and to repair its broken relations with the USA.

Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, attaches strategic importance to its relations with Pakistan. First of all, Pakistan has one of the strongest armies in the region, with conventional warfare experience. Especially at a time when Iran is seeking to develop nuclear weapons, it is extremely important that the nuclear power Pakistan stands by Saudi Arabia. Just as Pakistan can give Saudi Arabia nuclear deterrence, it can also surround Iran from the east. Thanks to the close relations with which it will be developed with Pakistan, Saudi Arabia can overcome the military capacity problem that it will face in ensuring the security of the regime in the Yemen war and in the event of a revolt inside.

The Yemen war and the Qatar crisis have also revealed that it is impossible for the UAE-Saudi axis to overcome regional crises, especially if the solution of these crises are based on military capacity. Although the UAE-Saudi axis has put into use very important military / diplomatic/economic resources in both Qatar and Yemen, they have achieved a political result in their favor as of the beginning of 2019, as they cannot provide active support of two important military powers of the region, such as Pakistan and Egypt. they have been extremely unsuccessful. In short, Pakistan's military capacity backed by nuclear power is indispensable for Saudi Arabia to ensure its own security and to establish a political order in its favor in the Middle East region.

Saudi strategists unanimously acknowledge that Pakistan plays an important role in Saudi Arabia's regional security strategy. Saudi Arabia even relies on Pakistani military power to suppress an upcoming anti-regime uprising. To this end, at the beginning of the Arab Spring process, long-lasting negotiations were held for the deployment of 100,000 Pakistani soldiers in the internal security service in Saudi Arabia. Although the Pakistani government was distancing itself from the idea of ​​deploying troops for Saudi internal security, many retired members of the Pakistani army served alongside the Saudi security forces during this period. In order to gain the military support of Pakistan to the "Islamic Army", which was established under the leadership of Saudi Arabia to "fight terrorism" in December 2015 and participated in many Sunni Muslim countries, Rahil Sharif, the former chief of general staff of Pakistan, was appointed as commander in chief at the beginning of 2017 on the Saudi initiative.

The future of Saudi Arabian-Pakistani relations

Focusing on a historical and geopolitical rivalry with India, Pakistan's traditional policy towards the Middle East and the Islamic world has been neutrality. This principle is applied more strictly in situations involving sectarian tension. In the 1980s and early 1990s, Pakistan witnessed conflicts between Sunni and Shiite sectarian groups allegedly supported by Saudi Arabia and Iran, respectively. The rulers of the country have taken care to maintain this neutrality policy of the country in every regional crisis and not to be involved in regional crises. When Saudi Arabia failed to get a positive result from its airstrikes against Yemen in 2014, Pakistan asked the ground forces to support the ground war, but the Pakistani parliament unanimously rejected Saudi Arabia's request, based on the principle of neutrality. The fact that Pakistan was not persuaded to send land power to Yemen despite Saudi Arabia's suppression for a long time has been the most important factor that put the Yemen war into an impasse. It is also an important matter that the Pakistani parliament made this decision after the Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif's visit to Pakistan.

The most important issue preventing Saudi Arabia from joining an anti-Iran coalition by abandoning its neutrality policy in regional alliances is Pakistan-Iran relations and the Shiites constitute a significant part of the Pakistani population. Iran is an important economic partner for Pakistan and a significant part of the country's energy needs are provided from Iran. The significant Shiite population (about 20 percent) living in the country causes a fragile sectarian balance in Pakistan. Just as Saudi Arabia does not share Pakistan's concerns about Kashmir and India, Pakistan does not share Saudi Arabia's sensitivities against Iran. An important indicator of this situation is that Saudi Arabia was able to easily sign an agreement with India in 2014 that allows military training, student exchange, and cooperation in areas ranging from hydrography and security to logistics. What is striking here is that India is the most important rival of Pakistan, with whom Saudi Arabia has wanted to develop very strong relations for years. As a matter of fact, this agreement has led to disappointment in Islamabad.

Pakistan does not share the same concerns with Saudi Arabia regarding the Muslim Brotherhood. In Pakistan, Jamaat-i-Islami, who has an important role in the administration, has very close relations with the Muslim Brotherhood. If the Pakistani administration gets closer to Saudi Arabia and takes part in an anti-Muslim Brotherhood campaign, it could face serious problems within the country.

Is Pakistan changing its neutrality policy towards the Middle East?

The developments in the last week give the impression that Pakistan may abandon its neutrality policy and join the anti-Iran coalition in the UAE-Saudi Arabia axis. The most important reason for this development is the tension Pakistan has been experiencing with Iran and India recently and the economic problems in the country. Especially the attacks against the Iranian army in Baluchistan, the eastern province of Iran, and Iran's accusing statements against Pakistan, which declared that the organization named Jayshu'l-Adl, which carried out the attack, was supported by Pakistan, seems to have led Pakistan to question its attitude towards Iran.

Second, the increasing economic problems in the country seem to have limited Pakistan's political choices. Pakistan hosted the UAE crown prince Zayed al-Nahyan shortly before the Saudi crown prince, and it was reflected in the press that during this visit, Pakistan received a promise of 6 billion dollars from the prince. It was announced that Mohammed bin Salman signed an economic support and investment agreement exceeding $ 20 billion on the first day of his visit to Pakistan.

If it joins the anti-Iranian coalition, Pakistan might find itself involved in instabilities similar to the Shia-Sunni conflict and a campaign against the rule from the Jamaat-e-Islami front (which historically saw itself close to the Muslim Brotherhood movement). The coming days will show which of the very limited options Pakistani politicians will choose and how this choice will have repercussions inside and outside the country. Although Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan is seeking a compromise by saying in an interview published a few hours before the crown prince's visit, "Pakistan will defend Saudi Arabia in every trouble that happens to it, but we want to play a unifying role in the region," but the country's policymakers obviously they have limited options.